PUBLICATIONS

Since the initial release of the Significant Oil and Gas Fields of the United States Database in 1985, Richard Nehring, has written more than twenty-five papers and presentations using the Database.

Selected examples of these papers are listed below to illustrate many of the possible uses of the Database:

• RETHINKING UNCONVENTIONAL RESOURCE ASSESSMENTS – Prepared for the AAPG Annual Meeting in Calgary in June 2016, this presentation proposes a new approach for unconventional resource assessment.
• THE MYTH OF 100 YEARS OF GAS SUPPLY – Prepared for the AGI Forum in Fort Worth in November 2014, this presentation critiques the assertion that the United States has more than 100 years of remaining gas supply.
• DOES THE UNITED STATES HAVE MORE THAN 100 YEARS OF FUTURE GAS SUPPLY? – Prepared for the AAPG Hydraulic Fracturing GTW in August 2012, this presentation discusses the fundamentals of extremely large gas resources and concludes that the likelihood that the U.S. has more than a century of remaining gas supply is very small.
• THE STABILIZING SHALES – Published in the Oil and Gas Investor in January 2012, this paper argues that shale gas will have a stabilizing effect on the U.S. gas market during the next 10-15 years.
• TRANSFORMATIVE AND DISRUPTIVE: SHALE GAS AND U.S. GAS SUPPLY – Prepared for the RMAG/COGA annual meeting in July 2010, this paper discusses the transformative and disruptive effects, both nationally and in the Rocky Mountain region, of the shale gas revolution.
• JUST HOW ENORMOUS IS THE “ENORMOUS” U.S. GAS RESOURCE? – Prepared for the AAPG Annual Meeting in New Orleans in April, 2010, this presentation explores the uncertainty in recent estimates of the U.S. gas resources and its implications for long-term supply and energy policy.
• OVERTHROWING THE PARADIGM: THE TRANSFORMATION OF U.S. GAS SUPPLY – Developed for the 24th World Gas Conference in Buenos Aires in October 2009, this presentation examines the changes in U.S. gas supply since 1950, emphasizing the emergence of unconventional gas in the past twenty years.
• WILL THE OPERATIONAL SUCCESS OF U.S. GAS PRODUCERS BE A FINANCIAL FIZZLE? – This paper was published in the Oil and Gas Investor in January, 2009 under the title: “The Disruptive Shales”
• GROWING AND INDISPENSABLE – Prepared for the Rocky Mountain Energy Epicenter in July, 2008, this presentation describes the recent contributions of Rocky Mountain gas production and reserves to national gas supply.
• THE OIL RECOVERY GROWTH POTENTIAL OF THE PERMIAN BASIN, USA - This poster, first presented at the November 2006 AAPG Hedberg Conference on Understanding World Oil Resources, provides a play-by-play analysis of oil recovery growth potential in the Permian Basin. Twenty-one plays, each with at least an ultimate recovery potential exceeding 0.5 billion bbls., are examined. The poster was subsequently presented at the Annual AAPG Convention in Long Beach in April 2007 and at the Fall Symposium of the WTGS in Midland in October 2007 (where it was selected as the Best Poster of the Symposium).
• DOES THE HUBBERT METHOD PROVIDE A RELIABLE MEANS OF PREDICTING FUTURE OIL PRODUCTION? - This paper, published initially in the Oil and Gas Journal in April, 2006, examines annual and cumulative discovery curves as of 1964, 1982, and 2000 for the Permian Basin and San Joaquin Valley to examine whether they provide a reliable means of predicting future oil production accurately. (also available at www.pirinc.org/Publications - posted October 2006.)
• GROWING AND INDISPENSABLE: THE CONTRIBUTION OF PRODUCTION FROM TIGHT GAS SANDS TO U.S. GAS PRODUCTION - Originally prepared as a poster for AAPG’s Hedberg Conference on Understanding Tight Sandstone Gas in April 2005, it examines the contribution to U.S. gas production from tight sandstone reservoirs and other unconventional sources between 1990 to 2003. It was subsequently converted to a paper, expanded, and updated to 2005, to appear as Chapter 2 in Cumella, Shanley, and Camp, eds., Understanding, Explaining, and Developing Tight-gas Sands, AAPG Hedberg Series #3, May 2008.
• WHEN EVERYBODY FOLLOWS, WHERE DO THEY GO? WHY WE NEED TO RETHINK CURRENT NORTH AMERICAN EXPLORATION AND EXPLOITATION STRATEGY - Originally presented to the AAPG Annual Meeting in Salt Lake City in May 2003, this paper examines the validity of what appears to be the dominant approach to upstream strategy today in the light of recent major play developments.
• THE FUTURE OF U.S. GULF OF MEXICO BASIN GAS PRODUCTION - Prepared for the EPRI Natural Gas Workshop in October 2001, this presentation analyzes recent trends in past gas production and projects production to 2010 in both the onshore and offshore portions of the Gulf of Mexico Basin.
• THE GULF OF MEXICO: RISING STAR OR OVER THE HILL? - Prepared for EIA’s Annual Energy Outlook Conference in March 2001, to analyze the factors shaping offshore gas production in the Gulf of Mexico to 2015.
• THE PAST AND FUTURE OF THE GULF OF MEXICO OCS SHELF - Prepared for the 50th Annual Convention of the Gulf Coast Association of Geological Societies in October 2000 to examine the composition of reserve additions on the shelf from 1991 to 1998 as clues to determining its future production.
• DOES ONLY CONVENTIONAL OIL PRODUCTION MATTER? - This paper, prepared in 1999, analyzes the composition of recent U.S. oil production by both conventional and non-conventional sources.
• IS THE UNITED STATES RUNNING OUT OF UPSTREAM OPPORTUNITIES? - This paper, published in the Oil and Gas Journal in November 1998, examines recent reserve additions in the U.S., both in the aggregate and by specific fields, as a means of estimating remaining opportunities.
• OIL AND GAS RESOURCES - This chapter, part of GSA’s volume on The Gulf of Mexico Basin (1991), provides a detailed description of the known oil and gas resources of the Gulf of Mexico Basin in both the United States and Mexico.
• THE CREATIVE EVOLUTION OF EXPLORATION CONCEPTS IN THE UNITED STATES - The Haas-Pratt AAPG Distinguished Lecture for 1990-1991.
• LET’S GET RID OF DUMB EXPLORATION - This paper, first presented at the annual SEG Convention in October 1989, discusses recent improvements in exploration efficiency.
• WHAT REALLY HAPPENED IN 1986? - This paper, presented at the Houston Geotech in September 1987, examines what happened to industry results, as opposed to inputs, in 1986.
• HOW MANY SIGNIFICANT OIL AND GAS FIELDS ARE BEING DISCOVERED IN THE UNITED STATES? - This paper, prepared in 1986, analyzes recent trends in the number of significant oil and gas discoveries nationwide.

Following up on the AAPG Hedberg Research Conference in November 2006 that Mr. Nehring organized and chaired, he has made more than a dozen presentations on world oil resources and its implications for future world oil production.

These include:

• A special session on UNDERSTANDING WORLD OIL RESOURCES (chaired by Mr. Nehring) at the Annual AAPG Convention in Long Beach, April 3, 2007. The five presentations given at the session were:
  • UNDERSTANDING WORLD OIL RESOURCES: INTRODUCTION (author and presenter)
  • UNDISCOVERED WORLD OIL RESOURCES (assisting author to Ron Charpentier - presenter)
  • UNDERSTANDING RECOVERY GROWTH (Co-author with Keith King and presenter)
  • UNCONVENTIONAL WORLD OIL RESOURCES (Co-author with Jeff Eppink - presenter)
  • IMPLICATIONS FOR WORLD OIL PRODUCTION (author and presenter)
• PEAKED OR STILL TO PEAK? WORLD OIL RESOURCES AND FUTURE PRODUCTION - Presentation to Annual AAPG Leadership Conference, Keystone, Colorado, August 18, 2007.
• THE CONTRIBUTION OF ALBERTA EHO/BITUMEN TO WORLD OIL PRODUCTION, 2005-2020 - Presentation to AAPG Hedberg Research Conference, Banff, Alberta, October 2, 2007.
• TAKING RECOVERY GROWTH SERIOUSLY - Presentation to ASPO-USA Houston World Oil Conference, October 18, 2007.
• LONE PEAK OR MOUNTAIN RANGE: CHALLENGES FOR FORECASTING PEAK WORLD OIL PRODUCTION - Presentation to EIA, Washington D.C., November 15, 2007.
• EXPLAINING RECOVERY GROWTH: IMPLICATIONS FOR ASSESSMENT METHODOLOGY - Presentation to USGS Reserve Growth Workshop, Denver, March 11, 2008.
• WORLD OIL RESOURCES AND THE FUTURE OF WORLD OIL PRODUCTION - Presentation to the Western Cape Branch, Geological Society of South Africa, Capetown, August, 2008.
• TRAVERSING THE MOUNTAINTOP: WORLD FOSSIL FUEL PRODUCTION TO 2050 - published in The Impact of Population Growth on Tomorrow’s World, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B, Volume 364, pp. 3067-3079, September 2009.
• PEAK OIL: WHY, WHEN, AND HOW - Presentation to the Pikes Peak Economic Club, Colorado Springs, February 2010.
• RECOVERY GROWTH AND THE FUTURE OF WORLD OIL SUPPLY - Presentation to the AAPG Foundation Trustees Annual Meeting, Greensboro, Georgia, October, 2010.